Ukraine - a tragedy:

I have written many articles about Russia over the years and, more recently, in the context of the war they have waged on Ukraine. One of the recent articles was read by a lady from Ukraine who complimented me on it. I was delighted to get the positive feedback but it reminded me that before I ever lived in Russia, I had spent two and a half great years working in Ukraine, in Kyiv. This was in the late 1990’s, relatively soon after independence from the old Soviet Union. The country was a little under developed then, but I have been back many times since and I saw enormous change and greatly improved lifestyles and standards of living. Sadly, the war has now set this back inexorably and the country may take a generation or even more to recover.

Not having lived there in the intervening period, I can’t comment as to how the country prospered. However, I can speculate and I suspect much of it was due to finally being independent and out from under the suffocating regime of the old Soviet Union. While Ireland is vastly different from Ukraine in many ways, we do share a history of being dominated for hundreds of years by a larger, more powerful neighbor.

When I lived in Ukraine, I found people were delighted with their new found independence and while their country was far from perfect, they definitely never wanted to return to being dominated by a larger power. Having said that, I never detected any animosity towards Russia. In fact there was a commonality in many areas. Most Ukrainians spoke Russian as their first language, particularly in the larger cities and in the east; many people had relatives in Russia; names were similar, both forenames and surnames. But the key thing was, people were Ukrainians; this was Ukraine, a sovereign nation, a proud people and they intended to remain so. And something that has always irritated me – the country is Ukraine – not ‘the Ukraine,’ which is a British invention from the 19th Century.

I know it may sound trite to say this but I could have told Vladimir Putin that Ukraine would respond to his invasion with every ounce of energy and resources that they could muster. I detected this from many of the friends I made and colleagues I worked with. They never wanted to go back to the old days and would fight to the death for their country’s freedom. Most have actually joined militias and thankfully, all are still alive and well, although we feared initially that many would perish. When the Russian Ambassador, Yuri Filatov, said on Irish radio about a week before the invasion that: ‘Russia has no intention of invading and to do so would be insanity,’ I agreed with him. Why would Russia risk so much to attack what in many ways were their brothers, sisters and cousins. Yes, I am aware of the real politik between Russia and the west and Russian fears of NATO expansion but surely this could have been resolved without such huge loss of life and horrendous destruction.

The Orthodox Church is still strong in Ukraine.

Ukraine is not a small country; in fact it is the second largest country in Europe after Russia. So it was never going to be easy to subdue. Hitler failed; Napoleon failed; how did Putin think the country would fall so easily? Ukrainians are outwardly friendly but inwardly strong and resilient.

I was lucky when I lived in the country to be able to see most of it on weekend trips. From Lviv in the west to Odessa and the Crimean region in the south, Zaporozha, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk in the east and Poltava and Kharkiv in the north and very many other places in between. Everywhere I went, I was greeted with friendliness. I was invited into people’s homes and dachas. My overwhelming impression was of a peaceful and gentle people. I would have to say that I never felt in any danger or in any way threatened at any point. Everyone I met was helpful and anxious to portray a good image of the country to a foreigner. There was no doubt some corruption and I’m sure there still is. But there is corruption in every country; in many places it is a way of life. Everyone wants to improve their lot in life and customs that have been in place for centuries die hard. But freedom from oppression is a different matter entirely. My country is far from perfect also but if Britain came back tomorrow and tried to reconquer, I’d be the one joining a militia and manning the barricades.

So, what happened? Why Ukraine? Why is this country suffering the worst land war seen in Europe since World War 2; a situation we thought had been confined to history. Why are a peaceful people being bombed out of their homes, attacked and killed? To understand the present, we often have to look at the past. One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s better known sayings is: ‘anyone who looks at the old Soviet Union without some form of affection has no heart, but anyone who thinks it can be put back together has no head.’ Whatever about the first part of the quote, the second makes absolute sense. So, why is he trying to do just that? He already has alliances with Belarus, Kazhakstan, Georgia and Armenia and when Ukraine continuously rejected his overtures, he decided to invade. The reason and the ultimate answer, in my view, is that deep within Putin’s and a great number of other Russian people’s psyche, is the view that everyone to their west is their enemy. Now, if we look at history, there is a strong basis for this belief. Russia is a vast land, with endless natural resources. Western nations have always looked at it with awe and envy. The French tried to conquer here; so did the British and the Poles and the Swedes, not to mention the Turks and the Austro-Hungarians; the most recent attempt was made by the Germans in WW2. All failed, but the common denominator in all of these conflicts was massive loss of Russian life. In WW2, over forty million people died worldwide. It is estimated that thirty million of these people were Russians. There is no family I ever met in Russia whose family wasn’t touched by the conflict. It was no surprise then that after WW2, the then Soviet Union set up a number of puppet communist states as a buffer between it and the west to prevent future invasion. All those states are now independent nations; most are in the EU. All are members of NATO. The only buffer left between Russia and the west is Belarus and Ukraine. Belarus is docile and friendly to Russia; Ukraine was seen as not, free and proud and about to apply for membership of the EU and possibly NATO.

This may seem like a simplistic analysis but it goes even deeper than that. While Russia has always seemed strong from the outside, there have always been internal insecurities. The clue is in the name – the Russian Federation, because Russia itself is a collection of states and republics, which have often had their own designs on independence. The most well known is Chechnya, which although currently subdued has really been at war with Russia for almost 1,000 years. This brings back more parallels for me because we were at war with Britain for 800, before finally gaining our freedom. So, there is a paranoia at the ruling level in Moscow about keeping control of all areas of the country. The word ‘control’ actually pervades all areas of society and to my mind is one of the greatest brakes on real economic progress and development. It constantly impeded us when we tried to run businesses there; regardless of the desire to run a good business and make profits, the ultimate overriding concern was always control. It even pervades personal relationships and families. There is always someone who wants to take control. I’m not positing this as an outright criticism; I do understand where it came from and for the need of the country to protect itself; unfortunately it tends to be suffocating and a huge barrier to progress. Just as the Russian leadership feels the need to have control of all republics and regions, the man-in-the-street feels the need to control his work and personal situations.

But this is 2023. No one wants to take over Russia today. For sure there are western (and eastern) nations with designs on its wealth and natural resources, but is any nation ever again going to be daft enough to invade and physically take over the place? This brings us back to Filatov – it would be insane.

This article is about Ukraine and not Russia so let us return to Kyiv and its surrounds. It is hard to criticize the millions of people who have left the country since the war began. In the hierarchy of needs, the first one is always safety. People want their families to be well away from conflict zones and who can blame them. I will say though that very few of the people I knew have left Ukraine. Most have decided to stay and fight and have joined volunteer militias. They are brave men and women and I admire them greatly. There are currently over 75,000 Ukrainian refugees in Ireland and millions in other parts of Europe and elsewhere. Now, while I have nothing but sympathy for these people, no one ever mentions the elephant in the room; that is, as far as I am aware, Ukraine has a law in place that says all males between 18 and 65 must stay to defend the country and support the war effort. So, how have so many of them made their way here and elsewhere? My friends in Kyiv tell me that it’s relatively simple; they say they bribe the border guards. Unfortunately this raises the old issue of corruption, which I understand is still prevalent in some sectors. People in Ireland are falling over themselves to provide housing for some of these people; the Ukrainian Ambassador complained that the situation was ‘unacceptable.’ Yet my friends in Kyiv say, ‘send these guys back, they’re needed to defend the country.’ I will say no more about the situation but it does need to be addressed.

So, where do we go from here? Ukraine has done surprisingly well to defend itself to date and have piled embarrassment upon embarrassment for the Russian armed forces. I know from contacts in Russia that they expected Kyiv to fall in days and they thought the rest of the country would follow like dominoes. They had been conditioned by the Russian media to think that Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelinsky, was weak and a figure of fun, no doubt inspired by his former profession as a comedian. When the invasion started, the media in Russia actually reported that Zelinsky had fled to Poland and that Ukraine would be subdued within hours. What a ridiculous piece of fake news that was? Not only did Zelinski not flee, he is still there one year later, standing firm and making nightly broadcasts to his people. Not only that, he has become an international hero and has even been visited by the US President. He has won Time magazine’s, ‘Person of the year’ award, among many other accolades. He has led and defended his country fearlessly and tirelessly. Given the enormous pressure and responsibility he has had to bear, I think his leadership has been astonishing. A lesser person would have capitulated long ago.

The difficult part will be maintaining it. Because Ukraine is effectively being armed and bankrolled by the US, the UK, EU, NATO etc, Russia views the conflict as a proxy war between them and the west. Sadly for Ukraine, it is being fought in their theatre. Can they maintain their resilience? Russia can and has always played the long game. Although their forces are poorly trained, ill equipped, lacking in morale and motivation, there are endless amounts of them and Putin will have no problem in continuing to throw limitless amounts of men and armaments into battle in his pursuit of victory. Russia did this in WW2 or ‘The Great Patriotic war,’ as it is known there, even though their losses were horrendous. They eventually won and although this is a debate for another day, it can be argued that the Russians or the Soviets were really the ones who broke the Germans and not the western alliance.

As I write, Russia is relying on a group of mercenaries in an attempt to take control of Bakhmut, a small town in the east. This is a far cry from the total domination of Ukraine predicted in the media a year ago. But it is a small step and Russia will persist. Putin doesn’t care how long it takes; he has absolute control back home. And don’t think the entire rest of the world are supporting Ukraine – they’re not. The UN does and the western alliance effectively funds the resistance effort, but China, India and most countries in Africa still support Russia.

So, unfortunately we may be in for a long term conflict. I understand that life in Kyiv has more or less returned to normal, despite the odd Russian missile strike. I guess if it was still a war zone, Joe Biden would not have visited. Other parts of Ukraine, particularly the west, remain relatively untouched. But it is in the east and south that the pressure will continue.

Is there any hope of peace and compromise? I have to say that 90% of my Russian friends absolutely abhor the war and are ashamed of what Russia is doing to a people they erstwhile considered to be their brothers and sisters. But they say they are powerless to do anything about it. Many of them have already left Russia; many more would if they could but family commitments and lack of financial resources prevent them from seeking a new life elsewhere. Protest is effectively non-existent and for good reason. So, I’m afraid that many more will die before this conflict is resolved. Zelinski will have to hold firm and lead for a lot longer and he may even have to compromise before the wonderful people of Ukraine can live in peace and harmony again, independent and proud.

This article is dedicated to anyone I know in Ukraine, particularly Olexander, Sergey, Volodymyr, Ira, Pavel, Tanya and Mikola. I also have to say that I acknowledge the support of my Russian friends, who have a similar view. I won’t name you but you know who you are.