Time for some Plain Speaking

After two weeks on Medium, I think it’s time for some Truth and Plain Speaking:

I had a job one time which involved a lot of writing; preparation of briefs; making cases for projects; updating boards of directors and similar. I had a boss at that time who encouraged me to use plain words. It wasn’t his own invention, in fact the original book ‘plain words’ had been written by Sir Ernest Gowers in 1954, apparently in an effort to encourage parts of the British Civil Service to use language which people could understand. I’m not sure if he ever succeeded. In any event, it was good advice and I have used it ever since.

People have said to me that I write language that they can understand while still getting my message across. It’ll do for me. What I am going to try to do here is to look at where our world is at currently, review some of the mistakes of the past, address where modern technology can lead us astray and try to come up with a set of rules which can guide us as we go forward.

So, in addition to plain words, I feel it is time for some plain speaking.

I realise that Medium allows me to express an opinion freely on virtually anything. The great thing about the internet and social platforms is that they allow everyone to have a say. That is good but it is important to have a filter. In other words, don’t believe everything just because it is written down – you think I’m kidding? Believe me, I’m not. Some people will believe any old tosh and there are endless amounts of it out there.

If I may use a business term, it’s important to understand the rules of the game before we play. Now, everyone can invent their own rules on here so I’m going to state mine.

Back in 2016, a few days before the infamous Brexit referendum in the UK, when it looked possible that the country might vote to leave the EU, one of my favourite actors, Stephen Fry, said, ‘oh really, surely we can’t be that stupid?’ Well, unfortunately they were and seven years later, we can see the results in terms of a faltering economy, rising unemployment, a yawning balance of payments deficit and huge levels of debt. This is not to even mention that they are on their fifth Prime Minister since they voted to leave.

So, I’m posing the question, can entire peoples or nations be stupid? Absolutely they can. Just look at the evidence – Germans elected Hitler; Americans elected Trump; British elected Johnson. I hasten to add that I’m not comparing the aforementioned individuals, merely the fact that they were democratically elected. We’ll forgive the US and Britain to some extent as it was only the vagaries of their electoral system that allowed these people to come to power.

But let’s come back to Stephen Fry for a moment. His thinking was presumably based on the premise that we are far better off together than apart. Cooperation is ten times better than competition. I’m sure also that he was thinking more in humanist terms than economic ones. For example, there has been no war in western Europe since the end of WW2. Yet, three times in the eighty years before this, Germany went to war with France – the Franco Prussian war of 1870, WW1 and WW2. You can blame these wars on circumstances and individuals but if you look at the underlying facts, it came down to enmities and thirst for power. It can be argued that all three conflicts were started by Germans but if you go back a further generation, you’ll encounter Napoleon. Down through the centuries there have been countless bloody conflicts across the European mainland. Each accomplished nothing and led to the tragic loss of millions of lives.

But we have come to our senses. There has been no enmity between any European nations since the EU and its predecessors came into being and hopefully there never will be again. When Britain and Ireland joined in 1973, we were admitted to this institution, which is not perfect but has an overriding principle of promoting cooperation and equality among nations. Of course it’s not perfect and you can always point to some shortcomings but surely anyone of even average intelligence can see that it’s far better to be in it than outside it? Yet Britain chose to leave – astonishing, and yes, stupid.

So, back to the rules of the game. Rule number one – do not trust or vote for politicians who are proven serial liars. It can be argued that all politicians lie or are economical with the truth, but there are degrees.

I once listened to an interview with the well known Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage during which he told seven serious complete and utter untruths in the first five minutes of the interview. I was a little surprised that the interviewer didn’t tackle him on any of them but later in the chat I got it. She just allowed him to rant and rave until he eventually contradicted himself and tied himself up in knots whereupon the interview descended into total farce. I have seen similar interviews with Boris Johnson which were so peppered with untruths, false claims and invented scenarios as to be hilarious. Yet people voted for these guys. There will always be people who don’t comprehend what’s going on and will vote for the liar or rabble rouser or the bully or the racist. But it’s when intelligent people start to vote for either these politicians or for their policies that we are in trouble. A further example is Donald Trump. This man lies for a living and clearly admits to doing so. There is overwhelming evidence that he is not to be trusted under any circumstances. Yet he still has a big support base in the US. The man even joked that he could walk out on to fifth avenue and shoot someone dead and it wouldn’t make any difference to his support base. In some cases, it might even enhance it.

People ask why; to me the answer is simple – the widespread proliferation of the internet and the growth of fake news. And it’s everywhere – since I joined Medium, I have been recommended numerous articles. I would estimate that at least 50% of those I have read are inaccurate; some are downright untrue or fake. I’m not saying I have a monopoly on the truth but I will not write anything that I haven’t either experienced personally or thoroughly researched from reliable sources. I’m not trying to take the moral high ground either but I think it is essential for the wellbeing of mankind that we are truthful and accurate with each other. The consequences of lies, deceit and untrue allegations are there for all to see – Nazi Germany; Stalin’s USSR; Mao’s China; Pol Pot, the list is endless. Each Dictator’s philosophy was fatally flawed and in every case founded on false claims and untruths. Arguably, all of these regimes were headed by insane power crazed men, but it should be noted that some of them came to power through democratic means.

Perhaps we should look at changing our systems of Government so we can avoid ever having a repeat of these regimes? Remember Vladimir Putin was also elected, even if the Russian system of democracy is still in its infancy. How can we come up with a system which doesn’t give absolute or even moderate power to one person? In the US, there are checks and balances built in to the electoral structure but it is still far from perfect. Time to pose a question here – who is the President of Switzerland? Do they even have one? The Swiss haven’t been in a war in 450 years; they have a cooperative system of government with independent cantons. They are among the most democratic nations on earth with their people given the opportunity to vote on every significant issue. But there is no supreme leader – no ultra powerful individual. Should other nations copy?

I will give two other examples, New Zealand and Scotland, the first an independent state, the latter a devolved democracy. What they have in common is that both of their Prime Ministers resigned recently; both had been in power for some time; both were highly regarded and recognised as having done a good job and, oh yes, both were women. Neither showed a thirst for power or an inability to let go of it; bother were regarded as honest and hard working politicians.. Are we beginning to see a pattern here? I certainly hope so. The PM of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, was widely acknowledged as probably the best political manager of the Covid pandemic. Shouldn’t we be electing more people like this? In particular, more women in positions of power?

Rule number two stipulates that we should build in enough checks and balances into our systems of Government so as to avoid too much power going to any one individual. Some would argue that many western democracies already have these in place and I’m sure some have. They would also argue that countries like China and Russia are effectively autocracies so this argument is pointless. Change cannot be achieved overnight but that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try. If we look at our world today and compare it with a century ago or even two centuries back, we are in a much better and more secure place. Freedom is a precious commodity and has been hard won but we have it to a great extent in western nations.

Some people will argue that we are all controlled by the large corporations who are ‘in league with our politicians,’ but I prefer to ignore the conspiracy theorists. That’s my rule number three. Unless someone can produce convincing evidence for their theory, I ignore it. For sure there are flaws in our democracies – massive ones; we can criticize them and try to ensure we don’t repeat them but don’t preach to me about massive conspiracies that merely try to suggest that theorists know more than or are brighter than the rest of us.

I am Irish so allow me to use my country as an example. I think that in Ireland, we have been reasonably well served by our politicians. That is not to say that our system is perfect but for a democracy that is only in place a little over 100 years, we have avoided extremism and have generally elected Governments who have prioritized people. We haven’t always got it right and our society has many flaws but we are getting there. Even some of our previous leaders who clung to power and were corrupt with a small c still respected the democratic process and ultimately their political actions were undertaken for the common good. Even our disgraced former Prime Minister Charlie Haughey will be viewed kindly in history. So rule number four is avoid extremes and extremists.

Finally, we need to apply more than a modicum of common sense. I am aware of the theory that common sense is not very common but I would argue to the contrary. In my experience the majority of people are sensible and responsible members of society. We just have to ensure we apply this to our democratic institutions and our voting patterns. We have to see extremists for what they are and call them out. There is some evidence that this is beginning to happen. The decline of Trump’s support in the US and the growing acceptance that Joe Biden is a decent guy trying to do the right thing for the country as a whole, not just for his backers. In the UK too, they finally seem to have gotten a PM in Rishi Sunak, who knows what he is doing and is not just a narcissist. His framing of the Windsor Accord could turn out to be a stroke of genius; time will tell.

Meanwhile in Ukraine, Putin suffers more and more losses. While Russia’s ability to absorb these seems constant and Putin’s position seems rock solid, it cannot go on indefinitely. This is not 1941. Russia’s forces are not inexhaustible. There is still strong support for the war at home but my sources tell me that it is beginning to wane. The more losses that are suffered, even if many are from remote regions, the more this will add to domestic discontent. While a complete withdrawal and backdown are unthinkable at this stage, arguably a partial withdrawal has already begun. Russia has abandoned the plan for a complete takeover of Ukraine and with each passing day is settling for less and less territory. The war is not going to end today or tomorrow but it is drawing to an inexorable close, in my view. Putin has enough control over his media to be able to put a positive spin on it – the Ukrainians didn’t want to be freed or some such nonsense, but something that allows him to withdraw and consolidate his position. If he doesn’t, growing dissent back home and an increasingly struggling economy might be his undoing.

As for Ukraine, it will take many years and billions of western aid to rebuild the country but at least it is going in the right direction and as the largest country in Europe apart from Russia, will take its place as the latest nation to join the pantheon of proud, free and democratic nations.

So, as they used to say in an old TV series, be careful out there, question everything, validate what you can and be very careful who you vote for.