Russia – how did it come to this?

Altai Mountains - Siberia

I read an article by a fellow writer this morning which stated that Russia is experiencing profound demographic issues and that this is effectively the root cause of their invasion of Ukraine. There is merit in this assertion. Russia, as the leading actor (Dictator) in the Soviet Union was a powerful nation, some would say a superpower. But since the break-up of that failed entity, Russia’s population has declined significantly and continues to do so.

Some of the other ex-Soviet states have aligned with Russia, but the largest of them (in terms of power and influence), Ukraine, has always wanted to look west. I would argue that Russia could also have done so and had they embraced the west as politically as they did western luxury goods and holiday resorts, they would now probably be the strongest and most influential European nation. Given their vast natural resources and natural advantages such as size, there is no reason to doubt this. Unfortunately, Russia has been led by a succession of egomaniacal and often bloodthirsty men, with Mikhail Gorbachev the only exception. While Gorbachev came from the Soviet system, he was intelligent enough to see it had no future and had he been given more time, could have transformed the country. Unfortunately his predecessors and successors have taken the conflict route.

But back to Ukraine; their natural instinct to look west to consolidate autonomy, democracy, freedom and economic wellbeing made perfect sense to a Ukrainian but was a step too far for Putin. Faced with a declining economy and a falling population, he felt the big prize of Ukraine slipping away, despite numerous attempts to subvert it and install puppet regimes. The only alternative, to one who thinks that way, is to invade, despite the horrendous loss of life and catastrophic destruction it was bound to entail.

The sad fact from Russia’s viewpoint is that the invasion has been a disaster. It is estimated that they have already lost a quarter of a million troops and continue to lose more each day. Their much (self) vaunted military machine is in ruins; much of it didn’t work because of lack of investment and a lot of it lies in ruins in the fields of Ukraine.

What will the loss of so many men (and it is men) do to their demographic problems? It will not only compound them; it could lead to their biggest crisis ever – the potential decline if not disappearance of the Russian race. Surely not, you say? I’m not talking short term but can races disappear entirely? Ask the Mayans of Central America or the Aztecs or Incas of South America. And how many of the native American tribes have survived in the USA?

Believe me, this is serious; this is Putin’s big gamble. Up to now, it appears to have gone disastrously wrong. And yet, support for the current regime seems to be rock solid. Someone needs to see sense; is there a voice anywhere within or around the confines of the Kremlin who can see what is happening? If there isn’t or if they haven’t enough influence to effect change, Russia is headed for disaster.

I’m not saying I forecasted this but if you have time, have a quick read of the attached article which I wrote in 2008, highlighting Russia’s demographic issues at that time and warning that they had to be addressed. I was going to merge it into this article but I’ll let it stand alone:

Demographic Issues - 2008:

I was talking to a good friend of mine a few years ago about the Russian Government’s initiative to incentivise people to have more children. A lot of Russians, while they would be generally supportive of Government, have a healthy sense of cynicism about these things. Apparently, the incentive was that if a couple were to have a second or subsequent child, the Government would pay the parents an amount of two hundred thousand roubles (€5,000 or $7,000) on the child’s sixteenth birthday. When I asked my friend Alexander about it, he first laughed and said, “Russians don’t think 16 months in advance, never mind 16 years.” He dismissed the initiative and felt it would not work. I then asked him if he and his wife would consider having a second child anyway. He looked at me as if I was not making sense and said, “But we have a child.” I told him that I had two children and asked if they would not like another? He seemed bemused and acted as if this was a totally alien concept, and to a large extent, here, it is.

When the Soviet Union split in 1991, the population of Russia was around 148 million. Now, it stands at 143 million. That is a massive drop in such a short space of time, (the equivalent of the entire population of Ireland), in an already very sparsely populated country. In a speech to parliament in 2006, then President Putin called the problem of Russia's dramatically declining population, "The most acute problem of contemporary Russia." You would have to say he was correct as experts estimate that if decline continues at present levels, the population will be only 111 million by 2050. With Russia’s long held (and justifiable) concern about its sovereignty, this issue may yet present greater challenges than were ever faced against the invading armies of the French or Germans, to name but two.

There are a myriad of reasons for this decline which include an inbuilt gender imbalance, deaths in various wars and conflicts, the loss of almost 200,000 of their citizens annually through a number of preventable tragedies such as drug abuse, alcohol abuse, workplace accidents, poor health and safety generally and road accidents. While Russia has amongst the strictest fire and health and safety legislation in the world, it is largely ignored and certificates of compliance can be obtained by bribing the designated official.

However, the overriding and salient fact is that Russians are not reproducing themselves, or in other words, not having enough children. The statistics of population decline make staggering reading – Russia currently loses around 800,000 people annually or over 90 people per hour! This would also be far worse were it not for inward immigration, mainly from countries of the C.I.S. or former Soviet States who can obtain work permits here through intergovernmental agreements. Russia’s problems are a stark and amazing contrast to the other side of the Eurasian landmass, where you see the exact opposite problem in China, India and other countries of East Asia.

But let’s look at some of the causes in greater detail. Russia has a very high death rate of 15 deaths per 1000 people per year. This is far higher than the world's average death rate of just under 9. The death rate in the U.S. is 8 per 1000 and for the United Kingdom it's 10 per 1000. While the official statistics for alcohol and drug related deaths are very high, Russians will tell you that in reality they are far higher. Apparently, the majority of hospital emergencies are accounted for by drugs and alcohol related incidents.

With this high death rate, it naturally follows that life expectancy is low - the latest Russian census cites the life expectancy of Russian men at 63 years while women's life expectancy is considerably better at 75 years, although the World Health Organisation estimates lower levels. I believe these statistics are misleading, if accurate. It does not mean that all men die at age 63. I know very many older people and most of my friends and acquaintances parents are still alive. Because the average is correct though, it does reveal the frightening fact that so many young males die before their time, many of them from alcoholism and drug addiction and its resultant diseases such as AIDs and HIV. The incidence of smoking is very high and also accounts for a huge number of premature deaths. These factors completely skew the gender balance of the population. The latest census gives a gender balance of 54:46 in favour of females but you will find many Russians who will tell you that the gap is much wider than that.

But let us get back to the low Birth Rate and the reasons for it. Official figures state the fertility rate is 1.4 per woman. There is no information on the number of abortions. During the Soviet era, abortion was very common and due to the lack of proper or quality birth control methods or devices, abortion effectively was the only method of birth control. That technique remains common and quite popular today, although there are no stats to support this. Nonetheless, according to a Russian TV program I saw, there are still more abortions than births.

In order to reproduce the population, the fertility rate needs to be greater than two. Some opposition politicians cite economic hardship, lack of a good health care system, poor social supports and a huge wealth imbalance in society as the primary reasons. Even Putin himself surprisingly admitted that the causes of the low birth rate were “low incomes, a lack of normal housing, doubts about the level of medical services and quality education”. He even admitted that “at times, there are doubts about the ability to provide enough food."

Additionally, immigration into Russia is relatively low - immigrants are composed primarily of ethnic Russians moving out of former Soviet republics and citizens of these states who acquire guest worker status. The Government is also acutely aware of the falling population and attempts to limit immigration lest ethnic Russians become a minority of the population. There are already a few million legal migrants and estimates say, maybe another million illegal ones. On the other hand, there is unfortunately a “brain drain” - emigration from Russia to Western Europe and other parts of the world as many give up on the problems that beset their nation and seek a better economic situation elsewhere. Young, technically skilled Russians are greatly in demand in Europe & the U.S. and can find employment relatively easily.

But let us come back to where we started – none of the factors highlighted above apply to my friend Alexander. He has a good job and also financial security as he owns three apartments. Yet neither he nor his wife have the slightest interest in having another child – and they are not alone. I would say that of all the people I have got to know in Russia over the years, less than 10% of them have had more than one child. If I carry out a straw poll of all my friends and acquaintances, I find it difficult to think of one who has two kids. Family units can be quite flexible and varied due to the high divorce rate and remarriage so you can have families with two children but they will very often have different Mothers or Fathers. I met one man in all the years I spent here with three children.

Having one child has become an ingrained part of the culture. We may have to go back to the Soviet era again for the root causes; the rush from the villages into the cities; poor housing; overcrowding, communal apartments, harsh economic conditions, food shortages, poor nutrition and the overriding requirement, obligation actually, for all citizens, men and women to work for the good of the State. There were and are so many one child families that when many people refer to “my brother” or “my sister”, they are actually speaking of their first cousin. In the previous generation, i.e.: mine, many of my contemporaries did have brothers or sisters but always, in my experience, only one.

Putin was right when he said it was potentially the greatest crisis Russia would ever face but his methods of addressing it failed abysmally. Long term financial incentives cut no ice with ordinary Russians. Unless and until they see investment in health care, education and the creation of a society which can guarantee a stable and happy future for their children, the birth rate will continue to fall. There is no doubt but that the resources are there to address and resolve the problem – they need to be made available and used wisely. There is no choice in this one – the alternative is disaster and ultimately extinction.